September 17 witnessed a significant downturn in China's domestic spot copper market, with Yangtze River spot 1# copper prices experiencing substantial declines. Both refined copper rod and recycled copper rod prices followed the downward trend, while LME copper prices similarly faced pressure. In contrast, LME aluminum prices bucked the trend with gains, even as domestic aluminum prices recorded modest declines, creating complex market sentiment.
Spot Market: Copper Prices Tumble as Aluminum Edges Lower
Detailed data showed Yangtze River spot 1# copper prices at 80,680 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan from the previous trading day. Refined copper rod prices stood at 81,280 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan), while recycled copper rod prices reached 79,900 yuan/ton (down 610 yuan). A00 aluminum prices registered at 20,890 yuan/ton, a modest 60 yuan decrease.
Futures Market: Divergent Trends in LME Copper and Aluminum
In international markets, LME copper prices settled at $10,117/ton (down $72), while LME aluminum prices rose to $2,712/ton (up $7). Domestic futures showed Shanghai copper October 2025 contracts at 80,550 yuan/ton (down 590 yuan) and Shanghai aluminum October 2025 contracts at 20,935 yuan/ton (down 75 yuan). November contracts for both metals remained unchanged from previous trading levels.
Inventory Data: Mixed Signals Across Exchanges
LME copper inventories declined by 3,000 tons to 150,950 tons, while Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories increased by 12,203 tons to 94,054 tons. These divergent inventory movements reflect varying regional supply-demand dynamics.
Market Analysis: Elevated Prices Dampen Copper Consumption
Industry surveys revealed a 56.46% daily increase in spot transactions for electrolytic copper, reaching 35,000 tons on September 16, indicating improved post-delivery market activity. However, persistently high copper prices have driven downstream buyers toward cheaper imported alternatives, creating demand-side pressure. With market participants awaiting the Federal Reserve's policy meeting outcome, copper prices are expected to maintain high-range volatility with limited upward momentum.
Recycled Copper Market: Trading Activity Intensifies
The recycled copper sector saw heightened trading activity following price fluctuations. While suppliers demonstrated increased willingness to offload inventory at favorable prices, traders remained cautious due to perceived overvaluation. Downstream copper mills maintained conservative purchasing strategies with limited acceptance of high-priced materials.
Copper Rod Sector: Challenging Conditions for Recycled Producers
Market data showed a 5.17% increase in total copper rod orders to 11,800 tons, with refined copper rod orders rising 17.82% to 8,200 tons. Conversely, recycled copper rod orders declined 15.63% to 3,600 tons. Recycled copper rod manufacturers face operational challenges due to significant raw material premiums and constrained pricing flexibility for finished products.
Market Outlook: Fed Decision Looms Over Metal Markets
The September 17 copper price correction reflects multiple factors including global economic uncertainty, demand-side constraints from high prices, and inventory pressures. Market participants are advised to monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions and macroeconomic developments closely, while exercising caution regarding elevated copper price risks.
The aluminum market presents a contrasting picture, with LME gains potentially tied to supply factors and domestic declines possibly reflecting demand weakness. Future aluminum price movements will depend on evolving supply-demand dynamics.
The day's trading revealed clear market divergence, with copper facing downward pressure amid high-price resistance while aluminum demonstrated mixed performance. Inventory fluctuations and macroeconomic uncertainties continue to shape market conditions, requiring careful risk assessment by industry participants.
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